Sunday, November 2, 2008

Predicting the New President

Using the regression methodology of Ray Fair ("The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1978), I estimate a 46.42% +/- 2.54 McCain share in the Obama-McCain race.

This method doesn't address social acceptability bias or attempt to estimate the changes in the distribution of voters. I assume the net effect of these factors is zero.

That said, Obama should be the new president.

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