Friday, October 26, 2012

Presidential Election Prediction

Using the regression methodology of Ray Fair ("The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1978), I estimate a 51.78% Obama vote share in the Obama-Romney race.

The election should be close, but Obama will probably be re-elected (note that Obama won 52.33% of the vote in 2008).

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